فايننشال تايمز: الإصلاحات في السعودية تأخذ منحى جدياً
ذكرت صحيفة تايمز في افتتاحيتها أن “الإصلاحات في السعودية التي تبدو أنها تأخذ منحى جدياً إلا أنها بطيئة نسبياً. إعادة تنظيم الحكومة يؤكد الحاجة الملحة للتغيير. وسرعة إنجاز الإصلاحات في السعودية تشبه أبطأ جمل في القافلة. مع أي امتيازات تُعطى لليبراليين فإن المتشددين يحصلون على امتيازات متوازية لها داخل المملكة التي تمثل شرعية آل سعود منذ إنشائها في عام 1932. قرار ولي ولي العهد محمد بن سلمان (30 عاما) بإنهاء الاعتماد على النفط، يمثل خطوة راديكالية عما هو متعارف عليه. الأمير سلمان، الابن المفضل للملك السعودي وضع خطة لتحويل الاقتصاد السعودي والتي عرفت باسم “رؤية 2030 “، بعدما أدرك أنه لا يمكنه الاستمرار بالاعتماد على النفط”
فيما يلي نص الإفتتاحية:
Reform in Saudi Arabia has tended to progress at the speed of the slowest camel in the caravan — if at all. Any concessions to liberals are matched by those granted to conservatives within the religious establishment on whom the al-Saud royals have relied for their legitimacy since the founding of the kingdom in 1932.
The energy which the 30-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, the deputy crown prince and favourite son of the king, is bringing to bear on the most ambitious economic overhaul yet, represents, therefore, a radical departure from the norm.
Recognising that the kingdom’s public finances are unsustainable and that there is unlikely to be a rebound in the oil price that could change that soon, he has set out plans to transform the economy known as vision “2030”. The plan aims to slash wasteful government spending, develop the non-oil economy and wean the population off its dependency on cradle to grave benefits. Boosting private sector investment and job creation are central to the programme.
In support of this, King Salman bin Abdulaziz has announced a wide ranging reorganisation of government. Some of the best known figures in the kingdom have been swept away. Chief among them is Ali al-Naimi, the oil minister since 1995 and a man once able to move world markets with the slightest utterance.
In his place, alongside a younger generation of technocrats in other departments, comes Khalid al-Falih, the chairman of state-owned oil company Aramco. The new minister is unlikely to hold the same sway in Opec and internationally as his predecessor. But he has a broadened remit at home and has welcomed the low oil price environment as providing the requisite impetus for change.
The broader effect of the reshuffle is to consolidate the influence of MbS — as the deputy crown prince is known in western circles — over the bureaucracy and over plans to end what he refers to as the “addiction to oil”. There are attendant dangers in centralising so much power in one man. But it might be impossible to introduce the needed reforms without it.
What makes the latest Saudi plans more credible is the recognition underpinning them of structural change in the oil industry. This makes it unlikely that prices will rebound even to levels where the government can balance its budget. Of course that does not make the more painful proposals on the table any easier for the public to digest.
Nor does it make the more breathtaking ambitions set out in vision 2030 any more realistic. Saudi Arabia is responsible for the third-largest arms procurement programme in the world. MbS wants to raise locally sourced production of arms from 2 per cent now to 50 per cent by 2030. The government is due to release more details in the coming weeks of how it plans to achieve such lofty goals. On many of these the kingdom will probably fall short. But the changes already under way are a strong marker of the seriousness of its intent.